Primary Forecast Concerns: Widespread snow Sunday night into Monday, more snow chances Monday night. On a typical La Niña year, the heat content in the south eastern Pacific is below average, which in turn causes the jet stream to move further north and subsequently, delivers more snow and cold temperatures to the upper half of the Western United States. South America. Our role is to provide unbiased science to better manage the environment, nationally, and globally. However, a chance for colder than normal temperatures could show up in the spring according to Climate Prediction Center models. NOAA National METAR Map. “Great Lakes ice cover often swings back and forth between higher and lower levels with each new year,” said Jia Wang, ice climatologist at NOAA GLERL. The jetstream plays a large role when it comes to the weather across the UK, so from here you can view the latest jetstream forecast right out to 16 days in 3 hour timesteps. While long term modeling has come a long way in the last decade, these predictions should not serve as an accurate representation as to whether or not there will be powder for you Christmas vacation in Big Sky. NOAA scientists project the maximum Great Lakes ice cover for 2021 will be 30 percent, higher than last year’s maximum of 19.5 percent, but part of a long-term pattern of declining ice cover likely driven by climate change. The models in the IRI/CPC plume are roughly split between La Niña and ENSO-neutral (Nino-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) during the fall and winter. The CPC issues the official U.S. 6 to 10 day outlooks. Only a brief break in the action is expected Monday before a northern stream system brings another chance at snow Monday night on the leading edge, as it were, of a relatively zonal upper level jet over the northern Plains. Each lake has a different pattern of ice cover with Lake Erie often experiencing the highest percentage of ice cover because its shallow water accelerates freezing. The 30-percent projected maximum ice cover forecast for this winter is an average of maximum ice coverage across the five lakes. During June 2020, sea surface temperatures (SST) were near average in the east-central equatorial Pacific and below average in the eastern Pacific. “Global climate patterns such as El Nino play a major role in driving these changes. For weak and moderate strength episodes (Figure 2), the relationship is even weaker, with approximately one-third of the events featuring above-average precipitation, one-third near-average precipitation, and one-third below-average precipitation.. GLERL produces ice projections for the five lakes taken together as well as individual lakes. These outlooks illustrate the probabilities of having above, normal, and below normal temperature and precipitation for the 6 to 10 day period, respectively. The Gulf Stream is the most important ocean-current system in the northern hemisphere, which stretches from Florida to north-western Europe. NOAA Hydro-Meteorological Prediction. Depending on the temperature of the western vs. eastern regions of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the atmosphere and subsequent meteorological drivers like the Jet Stream can be altered and have wide ranging effects on everything from rice harvests in Indonesia to snow depths in Colorado. Overall, the combined oceanic and atmospheric system is consistent with ENSO-neutral. So stay flexible getting your snow dance on, because after all, it never hurts to dance. Here are maximum ice cover projections for each lake: Experimental ice cover projections will be updated twice monthly  on the NOAA GLERL Ice Cover Forecasting page and shared on social media @NOAA_GLERL. Mexico. NOAA GLERL research has shown that the year-to-year variability of Great Lakes ice cover is heavily influenced by four large-scale climate patterns referred to as teleconnections: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Asia. However, below-average subsurface temperatures continued in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The effects of the "Dust Bowl" drought devastated the United States central states region known as the Great Plains (or High Plains). NOAA is predicting above average snowfall this winter in Montana, Wyoming, and the Great Lakes area with an increased chance of precipitation in Northern Colorado starting in March. 3-D view of a cold front. NOAA Aviation Weather. Related: 17 Resorts That Historically See Above Average Snowfall During A La Niña Winter. As the jet stream changes intensity and position, it affects the motion and strength of air masses. https://t.co/gOdqtKexYU pic.twitter.com/6prCrgBDP4. Behind an exiting system, lake effect snow is expected tonight through Saturday night, with accumulations concentrated towards the eastern Finger Lakes and higher terrain south of Syracuse. On a typical La Niña year, the jet stream tends to have a more northern positioning, which can mean consistent cold storms in places like British Columbia, Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Utah, and central/northern Colorado.. Perhaps one of the more complicated climate interfaces in our natural world, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is responsible for wide ranging shifts in weather patterns that is caused largely by the heat content and positioning in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño is anchored in the tropical Pacific, but it affects climate "downstream" in the United States. Working in partnership with other organizational units of the NOAA, a bureau of the Department of Commerce, NOAA Research enables better forecasts, earlier warnings for natural disasters, and a greater understanding of the Earth. The Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 indices were near zero during the latest week, while the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 indices were negative. Great Lakes ice cover experiences a great deal of year-to-year variability. If you’re anything like us, ski season is always on the brain and nothing gets the snowy synapses firing quite like a long-term winter forecast from our friends over at NOAA. That said, the last La Nina delivered historic snowfall to the California, so take these generalizations lightly. Good question. Each iteration will take into account the most recent surface air temperature data leading to a more accurate forecast. NOAA Convective Activity Potential. Based largely on dynamical model guidance, the forecaster consensus slightly favors La Niña development during the August-October season, and then lasting through the remainder of 2020. Australia. NOAA scientists project the maximum Great Lakes ice cover for 2021 will be 30 percent, higher than last year’s maximum of 19.5 percent, but part of a long-term pattern of declining ice cover likely driven by climate change. NOAA GLERL produces ice projections using a model that ingests statistical ice data as well as data on global air circulation patterns. “ENSO is one of the most important climate phenomena on Earth due to its ability to change the global atmospheric circulation, which in turn, influences temperature and precipitation across the globe” – NOAA. Caribbean. National Hurricane Center. At the same time, the climatic effects all but dried up an already depressed American economy in … Using an improved forecast system, scientists at the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory this year will update seasonal ice cover projections twice a month. Canada. Also, if La Niña shows up in force, expect these temperature outlooks to change drastically, with an opportunity for cold temps to cover the northern and central portions of the Rocky Mountains. Acidification impedes shell development of plankton off the U.S. West Coast, Drones that hunt hurricanes? In the summer, El Niño's primary influence on U.S. climate is on the hurricane season in both the eastern Pacific and the Atlantic. Negative equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) weakened from May through June. The 30-percent projected maximum ice cover forecast for this … This image below illustrates the long-term mean in annual maximum ice cover for 1973-2020. Europe. According to a recent report from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there is a 50-55% chance of La Niña conditions arriving this fall and lasting throughout the winter of 2020-2021. Just click the arrow buttons or drag the slider to view the forecasts for different times, or click the animate button to view an animation of the current forecast. Those that could be hurt by the La Niña pattern include Arizona and New Mexico. ENSO-neutral is favored to continue through the summer, with a 50-55% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~50% chance). Like with all things weather, forecasting beyond 10 days is extremely difficult. Topic Matrix. The unfortunate news is that NOAA is projecting above average temperatures for most of the United States throughout the winter of 2020-2021. For more information about Great Lakes Ice: https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/#FAQs, For more information, please contact Monica Allen, NOAA Communications, at monica.allen@noaa.gov or Margaret Lansing, NOAA GLERL, at margaret.lansing@noaa.gov. Equal Chances (EC) for average snowfall exist in most of Colorado, Utah, California, Nevada, Idaho, and the Pacific Northwest. The outlooks also include forecast 500 millibar heights for the 6 to 10 day period. Where air masses converge, they form boundaries called "fronts". The 2021 prediction is higher than the 2017 and 2020 maximums (both about 19.5 percent) and much lower than the 2018 maximum of 70 percent and the 2019 maximum of 81percent. Elsewhere over the United States, El Niño impacts are associated with drier conditions in the Ohio Valley, and there is a … The 2021 maximum ice cover prediction of 30 percent is significantly lower than the long-term average maximum coverage of 53 percent. But if annual cycles are removed, a long-term trend is visible showing that overall ice cover has been declining by five percent per decade based on 1973-2020 data.”. It incorporates several currents: the Florida current, the Gulf Stream itself, and an eastern extension, the North Atlantic Drift.The Florida Current is fast, deep, and narrow, but after passing Cape Hatteras the Gulf Stream becomes … Note the contrast in the surface temperature (blue = cold) between the two images associated with a sharp dip in the jet stream Ready to RSVP for ski season? While each La Niña has the potential to be wildly different than the last, the southern states of the west tend to get slightly … The maximum typically occurs between mid-February and early March. NEWS MISSION SPACECRAFT GALLERY PRESS MEDIA B-ROLL New Images from NOAA-20 Show Dramatic Change in Temperatures over North America Jan 18, 2018 NOAA-20 captured these two images of North America five days apart (January 11, 2018 and January 16, 2018). WEATHER OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES. NOAA puts some to the test, https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/#FAQs. Also during the month, low-level wind anomalies were easterly across the east-central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over parts of the far western and eastern Pacific. The 30-percent projected maximum ice cover forecast for this winter is an average of maximum ice coverage across the five lakes. The motion of air mass motion is usually based upon the air flow in the upper atmosphere. Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) - or "NOAA Research" - provides the research foundation for understanding the complex systems that support our planet. But on the whole, the northern mountains of the Western United States are generally favored by a La Niña pattern in terms of snowfall and temperature. Lightning Composite Page Forecast. On a typical La Niña year, the jet stream tends to have a more northern positioning, which can mean consistent cold storms in places like British Columbia, Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Utah, and central/northern Colorado. In winter, it influences the jet stream and the path of storms that move from the Pacific over the United States. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored to continue through the summer, with a 50-55% chance of La Niña development during Northern Hemisphere fall 2020 and continuing through winter 2020-21 (~50% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period). Tropical convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific, and near average over Indonesia. The 30-percent projected maximum ice cover forecast for this winter is an average of maximum ice coverage across the five lakes. 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The experimental seasonal projections can provide general information to assist shippers, commercial and recreational vessel operators, anglers, coastal managers and the general public who live, work and recreate on and around our nation’s largest freshwater lakes. The maximum typically occurs between mid-February and early March. ... Jet Stream. Using an improved forecast system, scientists at the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory this year will update seasonal ice cover projections twice a month. While each La Niña has the potential to be wildly different than the last, the southern states of the west tend to get slightly less than average snowfall. These patterns impact Great Lakes regional climate and ice cover by influencing the location of the westerly jet stream over North America. Wang attributes the decline to human-caused climate change, primarily rising atmospheric temperature.